{
  "format_version": "1",
  "case": "load-baseline",
  "title": "Five-minute BPA load prediction",
  "question": "How far off is the last load reading as a prediction for the next five minutes?",
  "mode": "recorded",
  "simulation": false,
  "registry_revision": "2026-11-09",
  "generated_at": null,
  "replay_clock": "2026-11-09T00:00:00Z",
  "timestamp_note": "Envelope retrieval timestamps use a fixed replay clock, not publisher retrieval times. Actual fixture capture times appear in the manifest; null means unrecorded.",
  "fixtures": [
    {
      "file": "bpa-operations.json",
      "sha256": "4d69703d9b889d9a1c13fb09ec2476a79e4c0977f5f2a2b79a1fc4fd0139e394",
      "captured_at": null
    }
  ],
  "limitations": [
    "The prediction repeats the prior reading. BPA supplied the load measurements, not these predictions.",
    "The scores describe this window alone. No model was trained and no prediction interval was estimated.",
    "Pairs must be five minutes apart on the publisher\u2019s Pacific clock. Blank load values do not count as zero."
  ],
  "steps": [
    {
      "tool": "grid.get_bpa_operations",
      "args": {
        "intervals": 12
      },
      "envelope": {
        "data": {
          "feed": "balancing_authority_interchange",
          "title": "BPA Balancing Authority Load & Total VER",
          "units": "MW",
          "columns": [
            "Load",
            "VER",
            "Hydro",
            "Fossil/Biomass",
            "Interchange",
            "Nuclear"
          ],
          "latest": {
            "timestamp": "09/03/2026 01:55",
            "values": {
              "Load": 5728,
              "VER": 623,
              "Hydro": 3726,
              "Fossil/Biomass": 804,
              "Interchange": 600,
              "Nuclear": 1134
            }
          },
          "intervals": [
            {
              "timestamp": "09/03/2026 01:00",
              "values": {
                "Load": 5894,
                "VER": 603,
                "Hydro": 3863,
                "Fossil/Biomass": 801,
                "Interchange": 548,
                "Nuclear": 1134
              }
            },
            {
              "timestamp": "09/03/2026 01:05",
              "values": {
                "Load": 5832,
                "VER": 600,
                "Hydro": 3988,
                "Fossil/Biomass": 801,
                "Interchange": 735,
                "Nuclear": 1136
              }
            },
            {
              "timestamp": "09/03/2026 01:10",
              "values": {
                "Load": 5812,
                "VER": 593,
                "Hydro": 3954,
                "Fossil/Biomass": 801,
                "Interchange": 709,
                "Nuclear": 1132
              }
            },
            {
              "timestamp": "09/03/2026 01:15",
              "values": {
                "Load": 5823,
                "VER": 635,
                "Hydro": 3913,
                "Fossil/Biomass": 803,
                "Interchange": 700,
                "Nuclear": 1131
              }
            },
            {
              "timestamp": "09/03/2026 01:20",
              "values": {
                "Load": 5877,
                "VER": 663,
                "Hydro": 3898,
                "Fossil/Biomass": 803,
                "Interchange": 665,
                "Nuclear": 1138
              }
            },
            {
              "timestamp": "09/03/2026 01:25",
              "values": {
                "Load": 5874,
                "VER": 682,
                "Hydro": 3895,
                "Fossil/Biomass": 803,
                "Interchange": 683,
                "Nuclear": 1136
              }
            },
            {
              "timestamp": "09/03/2026 01:30",
              "values": {
                "Load": 5866,
                "VER": 671,
                "Hydro": 3906,
                "Fossil/Biomass": 804,
                "Interchange": 694,
                "Nuclear": 1139
              }
            },
            {
              "timestamp": "09/03/2026 01:35",
              "values": {
                "Load": 5877,
                "VER": 649,
                "Hydro": 3810,
                "Fossil/Biomass": 802,
                "Interchange": 557,
                "Nuclear": 1132
              }
            },
            {
              "timestamp": "09/03/2026 01:40",
              "values": {
                "Load": 5839,
                "VER": 654,
                "Hydro": 3793,
                "Fossil/Biomass": 802,
                "Interchange": 585,
                "Nuclear": 1134
              }
            },
            {
              "timestamp": "09/03/2026 01:45",
              "values": {
                "Load": 5826,
                "VER": 669,
                "Hydro": 3756,
                "Fossil/Biomass": 803,
                "Interchange": 579,
                "Nuclear": 1137
              }
            },
            {
              "timestamp": "09/03/2026 01:50",
              "values": {
                "Load": 5801,
                "VER": 660,
                "Hydro": 3795,
                "Fossil/Biomass": 804,
                "Interchange": 632,
                "Nuclear": 1133
              }
            },
            {
              "timestamp": "09/03/2026 01:55",
              "values": {
                "Load": 5728,
                "VER": 623,
                "Hydro": 3726,
                "Fossil/Biomass": 804,
                "Interchange": 600,
                "Nuclear": 1134
              }
            }
          ],
          "record_count": 12,
          "reported_through": "09/03/2026 01:55",
          "window": "Dates: 03Sep2026 - 10Sep2026 (last updated 9Sep2026 07:26:18) Pacific Time",
          "window_intervals": 24,
          "populated_intervals": 24,
          "gap_intervals": 0,
          "pending_intervals": 12,
          "publisher_last_updated": "9Sep2026 07:26:18",
          "timestamps": "The file uses Pacific Time. Rows may carry PDT or PST; keep the label when supplied. Last-Modified dates the file, not an individual reading.",
          "note": "Five-minute SCADA readings from BPA's balancing authority, in megawatts. VER is variable energy resources \u2014 wind and solar together. The balancing authority includes loads and resources that are not BPA's own and excludes BPA loads served by transfer, so this is not a figure for 'BPA the utility'. For hourly history, or for any other balancing authority, use energy.grid_status; BPA's EIA-930 respondent code is BPAT.",
          "pending_note": "The file ends with 12 timestamps without measurements. These trailing slots are excluded from the returned intervals."
        },
        "provenance": [
          {
            "id": "source_01",
            "source_id": "bpa-operations",
            "steward": "Bonneville Power Administration",
            "system": "BPA transmission operations feeds",
            "dataset": "BPA Balancing Authority Load & Total VER",
            "dataset_version": "current",
            "authority_level": "primary",
            "access_path": "live",
            "source_updated_at": null,
            "retrieved_at": "2026-11-09T00:00:00Z",
            "cache_age_seconds": 0
          }
        ],
        "evidence": [
          {
            "id": "evidence_01",
            "source_ref": "source_01",
            "record_id": "balancing_authority_interchange#09/03/2026 01:00",
            "locator": null,
            "retrieved_at": "2026-11-09T00:00:00Z",
            "effective_at": "09/03/2026 01:00",
            "transformations": [],
            "payload_hash": null,
            "raw_recovery": "available"
          },
          {
            "id": "evidence_02",
            "source_ref": "source_01",
            "record_id": "balancing_authority_interchange#09/03/2026 01:05",
            "locator": null,
            "retrieved_at": "2026-11-09T00:00:00Z",
            "effective_at": "09/03/2026 01:05",
            "transformations": [],
            "payload_hash": null,
            "raw_recovery": "available"
          },
          {
            "id": "evidence_03",
            "source_ref": "source_01",
            "record_id": "balancing_authority_interchange#09/03/2026 01:10",
            "locator": null,
            "retrieved_at": "2026-11-09T00:00:00Z",
            "effective_at": "09/03/2026 01:10",
            "transformations": [],
            "payload_hash": null,
            "raw_recovery": "available"
          },
          {
            "id": "evidence_04",
            "source_ref": "source_01",
            "record_id": "balancing_authority_interchange#09/03/2026 01:15",
            "locator": null,
            "retrieved_at": "2026-11-09T00:00:00Z",
            "effective_at": "09/03/2026 01:15",
            "transformations": [],
            "payload_hash": null,
            "raw_recovery": "available"
          },
          {
            "id": "evidence_05",
            "source_ref": "source_01",
            "record_id": "balancing_authority_interchange#09/03/2026 01:20",
            "locator": null,
            "retrieved_at": "2026-11-09T00:00:00Z",
            "effective_at": "09/03/2026 01:20",
            "transformations": [],
            "payload_hash": null,
            "raw_recovery": "available"
          },
          {
            "id": "evidence_06",
            "source_ref": "source_01",
            "record_id": "balancing_authority_interchange#09/03/2026 01:25",
            "locator": null,
            "retrieved_at": "2026-11-09T00:00:00Z",
            "effective_at": "09/03/2026 01:25",
            "transformations": [],
            "payload_hash": null,
            "raw_recovery": "available"
          },
          {
            "id": "evidence_07",
            "source_ref": "source_01",
            "record_id": "balancing_authority_interchange#09/03/2026 01:30",
            "locator": null,
            "retrieved_at": "2026-11-09T00:00:00Z",
            "effective_at": "09/03/2026 01:30",
            "transformations": [],
            "payload_hash": null,
            "raw_recovery": "available"
          },
          {
            "id": "evidence_08",
            "source_ref": "source_01",
            "record_id": "balancing_authority_interchange#09/03/2026 01:35",
            "locator": null,
            "retrieved_at": "2026-11-09T00:00:00Z",
            "effective_at": "09/03/2026 01:35",
            "transformations": [],
            "payload_hash": null,
            "raw_recovery": "available"
          },
          {
            "id": "evidence_09",
            "source_ref": "source_01",
            "record_id": "balancing_authority_interchange#09/03/2026 01:40",
            "locator": null,
            "retrieved_at": "2026-11-09T00:00:00Z",
            "effective_at": "09/03/2026 01:40",
            "transformations": [],
            "payload_hash": null,
            "raw_recovery": "available"
          },
          {
            "id": "evidence_10",
            "source_ref": "source_01",
            "record_id": "balancing_authority_interchange#09/03/2026 01:45",
            "locator": null,
            "retrieved_at": "2026-11-09T00:00:00Z",
            "effective_at": "09/03/2026 01:45",
            "transformations": [],
            "payload_hash": null,
            "raw_recovery": "available"
          },
          {
            "id": "evidence_11",
            "source_ref": "source_01",
            "record_id": "balancing_authority_interchange#09/03/2026 01:50",
            "locator": null,
            "retrieved_at": "2026-11-09T00:00:00Z",
            "effective_at": "09/03/2026 01:50",
            "transformations": [],
            "payload_hash": null,
            "raw_recovery": "available"
          },
          {
            "id": "evidence_12",
            "source_ref": "source_01",
            "record_id": "balancing_authority_interchange#09/03/2026 01:55",
            "locator": null,
            "retrieved_at": "2026-11-09T00:00:00Z",
            "effective_at": "09/03/2026 01:55",
            "transformations": [],
            "payload_hash": null,
            "raw_recovery": "available"
          }
        ],
        "coverage": {
          "registry": "covered",
          "execution": "complete",
          "pagination": "truncated",
          "source_claim": "complete",
          "result": "hit",
          "sources_searched": [
            "bpa-operations"
          ],
          "time_range": {
            "from": "09/03/2026 01:00",
            "to": "09/03/2026 01:55"
          }
        },
        "warnings": [
          {
            "code": "screening_only",
            "message": "Operational SCADA readings published minutes after the fact. They are situational awareness, not settled, revision-controlled or billing-quality figures, and should not be used as a system-of-record number.",
            "source_id": "bpa-operations"
          }
        ],
        "_execution": {
          "server": "doe-mcp",
          "server_version": "0.1.0.dev0",
          "tool": "grid.get_bpa_operations",
          "tool_contract_version": "1",
          "envelope_version": "1",
          "adapters": {
            "osti_family": "1",
            "opendatasoft": "1",
            "json_document": "1",
            "curated": "1",
            "eia_v2": "1",
            "fueleconomy": "1",
            "text_feed": "1",
            "postgrest": "1",
            "federal_register": "1",
            "vips": "1",
            "daymet": "1",
            "essdive": "1",
            "esgf": "1",
            "sage": "1",
            "optimade": "1",
            "basis_sets": "1",
            "facility_status": "1",
            "gcam_csv": "1",
            "nmdc": "1",
            "none": "1",
            "self_registry": "1"
          },
          "registry_revision": "2026-11-09",
          "request_id": "recorded-workflow"
        }
      }
    }
  ],
  "worksheet": {
    "caption": "Five-minute load predictions and errors",
    "columns": [
      "Prior reading (Pacific Time)",
      "Target reading (Pacific Time)",
      "Prediction (MW)",
      "Reported load (MW)",
      "Prediction minus reported (MW)",
      "Prior evidence ID",
      "Target evidence ID"
    ],
    "rows": [
      [
        "09/03/2026 01:00",
        "09/03/2026 01:05",
        5894,
        5832,
        62,
        "evidence_01",
        "evidence_02"
      ],
      [
        "09/03/2026 01:05",
        "09/03/2026 01:10",
        5832,
        5812,
        20,
        "evidence_02",
        "evidence_03"
      ],
      [
        "09/03/2026 01:10",
        "09/03/2026 01:15",
        5812,
        5823,
        -11,
        "evidence_03",
        "evidence_04"
      ],
      [
        "09/03/2026 01:15",
        "09/03/2026 01:20",
        5823,
        5877,
        -54,
        "evidence_04",
        "evidence_05"
      ],
      [
        "09/03/2026 01:20",
        "09/03/2026 01:25",
        5877,
        5874,
        3,
        "evidence_05",
        "evidence_06"
      ],
      [
        "09/03/2026 01:25",
        "09/03/2026 01:30",
        5874,
        5866,
        8,
        "evidence_06",
        "evidence_07"
      ],
      [
        "09/03/2026 01:30",
        "09/03/2026 01:35",
        5866,
        5877,
        -11,
        "evidence_07",
        "evidence_08"
      ],
      [
        "09/03/2026 01:35",
        "09/03/2026 01:40",
        5877,
        5839,
        38,
        "evidence_08",
        "evidence_09"
      ],
      [
        "09/03/2026 01:40",
        "09/03/2026 01:45",
        5839,
        5826,
        13,
        "evidence_09",
        "evidence_10"
      ],
      [
        "09/03/2026 01:45",
        "09/03/2026 01:50",
        5826,
        5801,
        25,
        "evidence_10",
        "evidence_11"
      ],
      [
        "09/03/2026 01:50",
        "09/03/2026 01:55",
        5801,
        5728,
        73,
        "evidence_11",
        "evidence_12"
      ]
    ],
    "scores": {
      "pairs": 11,
      "mae_mw": 28.90909090909091,
      "rmse_mw": 36.97910958168876
    },
    "excluded_pairs": {
      "time_gap": 0,
      "missing_load": 0
    }
  }
}