{
  "format_version": "1",
  "case": "load-interval-check",
  "title": "Check a load prediction band",
  "question": "How often does a band fitted on earlier BPA load errors cover later readings?",
  "mode": "recorded",
  "simulation": false,
  "registry_revision": "2026-11-09",
  "generated_at": null,
  "replay_clock": "2026-11-09T00:00:00Z",
  "timestamp_note": "Envelope retrieval timestamps use a fixed replay clock, not publisher retrieval times. Actual fixture capture times appear in the manifest; null means unrecorded.",
  "fixtures": [
    {
      "file": "bpa-operations.json",
      "sha256": "4d69703d9b889d9a1c13fb09ec2476a79e4c0977f5f2a2b79a1fc4fd0139e394",
      "captured_at": null
    }
  ],
  "answer": "The 90th percentile of the first 15 absolute errors was 62 MW. A band that far either side of the prior reading covered 7 of the next 8 readings.",
  "limitations": [
    "The band uses the nearest-rank percentile of earlier errors. Later readings do not set its width.",
    "Coverage describes this short window. Serially related readings do not establish a future coverage guarantee."
  ],
  "steps": [
    {
      "tool": "grid.get_bpa_operations",
      "args": {
        "intervals": 24
      },
      "envelope": {
        "data": {
          "feed": "balancing_authority_interchange",
          "title": "BPA Balancing Authority Load & Total VER",
          "units": "MW",
          "columns": [
            "Load",
            "VER",
            "Hydro",
            "Fossil/Biomass",
            "Interchange",
            "Nuclear"
          ],
          "latest": {
            "timestamp": "09/03/2026 01:55",
            "values": {
              "Load": 5728,
              "VER": 623,
              "Hydro": 3726,
              "Fossil/Biomass": 804,
              "Interchange": 600,
              "Nuclear": 1134
            }
          },
          "intervals": [
            {
              "timestamp": "09/03/2026 00:00",
              "values": {
                "Load": 6005,
                "VER": 490,
                "Hydro": 4243,
                "Fossil/Biomass": 802,
                "Interchange": 705,
                "Nuclear": 1135
              }
            },
            {
              "timestamp": "09/03/2026 00:05",
              "values": {
                "Load": 6049,
                "VER": 488,
                "Hydro": 4216,
                "Fossil/Biomass": 802,
                "Interchange": 635,
                "Nuclear": 1136
              }
            },
            {
              "timestamp": "09/03/2026 00:10",
              "values": {
                "Load": 6024,
                "VER": 511,
                "Hydro": 4105,
                "Fossil/Biomass": 802,
                "Interchange": 568,
                "Nuclear": 1134
              }
            },
            {
              "timestamp": "09/03/2026 00:15",
              "values": {
                "Load": 6001,
                "VER": 528,
                "Hydro": 3961,
                "Fossil/Biomass": 801,
                "Interchange": 467,
                "Nuclear": 1137
              }
            },
            {
              "timestamp": "09/03/2026 00:20",
              "values": {
                "Load": 6009,
                "VER": 542,
                "Hydro": 3982,
                "Fossil/Biomass": 801,
                "Interchange": 492,
                "Nuclear": 1137
              }
            },
            {
              "timestamp": "09/03/2026 00:25",
              "values": {
                "Load": 5913,
                "VER": 526,
                "Hydro": 3952,
                "Fossil/Biomass": 802,
                "Interchange": 543,
                "Nuclear": 1136
              }
            },
            {
              "timestamp": "09/03/2026 00:30",
              "values": {
                "Load": 5969,
                "VER": 521,
                "Hydro": 3984,
                "Fossil/Biomass": 801,
                "Interchange": 509,
                "Nuclear": 1132
              }
            },
            {
              "timestamp": "09/03/2026 00:35",
              "values": {
                "Load": 6004,
                "VER": 522,
                "Hydro": 3989,
                "Fossil/Biomass": 800,
                "Interchange": 483,
                "Nuclear": 1136
              }
            },
            {
              "timestamp": "09/03/2026 00:40",
              "values": {
                "Load": 5950,
                "VER": 521,
                "Hydro": 3988,
                "Fossil/Biomass": 802,
                "Interchange": 532,
                "Nuclear": 1131
              }
            },
            {
              "timestamp": "09/03/2026 00:45",
              "values": {
                "Load": 5929,
                "VER": 538,
                "Hydro": 3985,
                "Fossil/Biomass": 801,
                "Interchange": 573,
                "Nuclear": 1137
              }
            },
            {
              "timestamp": "09/03/2026 00:50",
              "values": {
                "Load": 5907,
                "VER": 590,
                "Hydro": 3950,
                "Fossil/Biomass": 802,
                "Interchange": 612,
                "Nuclear": 1137
              }
            },
            {
              "timestamp": "09/03/2026 00:55",
              "values": {
                "Load": 5866,
                "VER": 610,
                "Hydro": 3926,
                "Fossil/Biomass": 802,
                "Interchange": 650,
                "Nuclear": 1138
              }
            },
            {
              "timestamp": "09/03/2026 01:00",
              "values": {
                "Load": 5894,
                "VER": 603,
                "Hydro": 3863,
                "Fossil/Biomass": 801,
                "Interchange": 548,
                "Nuclear": 1134
              }
            },
            {
              "timestamp": "09/03/2026 01:05",
              "values": {
                "Load": 5832,
                "VER": 600,
                "Hydro": 3988,
                "Fossil/Biomass": 801,
                "Interchange": 735,
                "Nuclear": 1136
              }
            },
            {
              "timestamp": "09/03/2026 01:10",
              "values": {
                "Load": 5812,
                "VER": 593,
                "Hydro": 3954,
                "Fossil/Biomass": 801,
                "Interchange": 709,
                "Nuclear": 1132
              }
            },
            {
              "timestamp": "09/03/2026 01:15",
              "values": {
                "Load": 5823,
                "VER": 635,
                "Hydro": 3913,
                "Fossil/Biomass": 803,
                "Interchange": 700,
                "Nuclear": 1131
              }
            },
            {
              "timestamp": "09/03/2026 01:20",
              "values": {
                "Load": 5877,
                "VER": 663,
                "Hydro": 3898,
                "Fossil/Biomass": 803,
                "Interchange": 665,
                "Nuclear": 1138
              }
            },
            {
              "timestamp": "09/03/2026 01:25",
              "values": {
                "Load": 5874,
                "VER": 682,
                "Hydro": 3895,
                "Fossil/Biomass": 803,
                "Interchange": 683,
                "Nuclear": 1136
              }
            },
            {
              "timestamp": "09/03/2026 01:30",
              "values": {
                "Load": 5866,
                "VER": 671,
                "Hydro": 3906,
                "Fossil/Biomass": 804,
                "Interchange": 694,
                "Nuclear": 1139
              }
            },
            {
              "timestamp": "09/03/2026 01:35",
              "values": {
                "Load": 5877,
                "VER": 649,
                "Hydro": 3810,
                "Fossil/Biomass": 802,
                "Interchange": 557,
                "Nuclear": 1132
              }
            },
            {
              "timestamp": "09/03/2026 01:40",
              "values": {
                "Load": 5839,
                "VER": 654,
                "Hydro": 3793,
                "Fossil/Biomass": 802,
                "Interchange": 585,
                "Nuclear": 1134
              }
            },
            {
              "timestamp": "09/03/2026 01:45",
              "values": {
                "Load": 5826,
                "VER": 669,
                "Hydro": 3756,
                "Fossil/Biomass": 803,
                "Interchange": 579,
                "Nuclear": 1137
              }
            },
            {
              "timestamp": "09/03/2026 01:50",
              "values": {
                "Load": 5801,
                "VER": 660,
                "Hydro": 3795,
                "Fossil/Biomass": 804,
                "Interchange": 632,
                "Nuclear": 1133
              }
            },
            {
              "timestamp": "09/03/2026 01:55",
              "values": {
                "Load": 5728,
                "VER": 623,
                "Hydro": 3726,
                "Fossil/Biomass": 804,
                "Interchange": 600,
                "Nuclear": 1134
              }
            }
          ],
          "record_count": 24,
          "reported_through": "09/03/2026 01:55",
          "window": "Dates: 03Sep2026 - 10Sep2026 (last updated 9Sep2026 07:26:18) Pacific Time",
          "window_intervals": 24,
          "populated_intervals": 24,
          "gap_intervals": 0,
          "pending_intervals": 12,
          "publisher_last_updated": "9Sep2026 07:26:18",
          "timestamps": "The file uses Pacific Time. Rows may carry PDT or PST; keep the label when supplied. Last-Modified dates the file, not an individual reading.",
          "note": "Five-minute SCADA readings from BPA's balancing authority, in megawatts. VER is variable energy resources \u2014 wind and solar together. The balancing authority includes loads and resources that are not BPA's own and excludes BPA loads served by transfer, so this is not a figure for 'BPA the utility'. For hourly history, or for any other balancing authority, use energy.grid_status; BPA's EIA-930 respondent code is BPAT.",
          "pending_note": "The file ends with 12 timestamps without measurements. These trailing slots are excluded from the returned intervals."
        },
        "provenance": [
          {
            "id": "source_01",
            "source_id": "bpa-operations",
            "steward": "Bonneville Power Administration",
            "system": "BPA transmission operations feeds",
            "dataset": "BPA Balancing Authority Load & Total VER",
            "dataset_version": "current",
            "authority_level": "primary",
            "access_path": "live",
            "source_updated_at": null,
            "retrieved_at": "2026-11-09T00:00:00Z",
            "cache_age_seconds": 0
          }
        ],
        "evidence": [
          {
            "id": "evidence_01",
            "source_ref": "source_01",
            "record_id": "balancing_authority_interchange#09/03/2026 00:00",
            "locator": null,
            "retrieved_at": "2026-11-09T00:00:00Z",
            "effective_at": "09/03/2026 00:00",
            "transformations": [],
            "payload_hash": null,
            "raw_recovery": "available"
          },
          {
            "id": "evidence_02",
            "source_ref": "source_01",
            "record_id": "balancing_authority_interchange#09/03/2026 00:05",
            "locator": null,
            "retrieved_at": "2026-11-09T00:00:00Z",
            "effective_at": "09/03/2026 00:05",
            "transformations": [],
            "payload_hash": null,
            "raw_recovery": "available"
          },
          {
            "id": "evidence_03",
            "source_ref": "source_01",
            "record_id": "balancing_authority_interchange#09/03/2026 00:10",
            "locator": null,
            "retrieved_at": "2026-11-09T00:00:00Z",
            "effective_at": "09/03/2026 00:10",
            "transformations": [],
            "payload_hash": null,
            "raw_recovery": "available"
          },
          {
            "id": "evidence_04",
            "source_ref": "source_01",
            "record_id": "balancing_authority_interchange#09/03/2026 00:15",
            "locator": null,
            "retrieved_at": "2026-11-09T00:00:00Z",
            "effective_at": "09/03/2026 00:15",
            "transformations": [],
            "payload_hash": null,
            "raw_recovery": "available"
          },
          {
            "id": "evidence_05",
            "source_ref": "source_01",
            "record_id": "balancing_authority_interchange#09/03/2026 00:20",
            "locator": null,
            "retrieved_at": "2026-11-09T00:00:00Z",
            "effective_at": "09/03/2026 00:20",
            "transformations": [],
            "payload_hash": null,
            "raw_recovery": "available"
          },
          {
            "id": "evidence_06",
            "source_ref": "source_01",
            "record_id": "balancing_authority_interchange#09/03/2026 00:25",
            "locator": null,
            "retrieved_at": "2026-11-09T00:00:00Z",
            "effective_at": "09/03/2026 00:25",
            "transformations": [],
            "payload_hash": null,
            "raw_recovery": "available"
          },
          {
            "id": "evidence_07",
            "source_ref": "source_01",
            "record_id": "balancing_authority_interchange#09/03/2026 00:30",
            "locator": null,
            "retrieved_at": "2026-11-09T00:00:00Z",
            "effective_at": "09/03/2026 00:30",
            "transformations": [],
            "payload_hash": null,
            "raw_recovery": "available"
          },
          {
            "id": "evidence_08",
            "source_ref": "source_01",
            "record_id": "balancing_authority_interchange#09/03/2026 00:35",
            "locator": null,
            "retrieved_at": "2026-11-09T00:00:00Z",
            "effective_at": "09/03/2026 00:35",
            "transformations": [],
            "payload_hash": null,
            "raw_recovery": "available"
          },
          {
            "id": "evidence_09",
            "source_ref": "source_01",
            "record_id": "balancing_authority_interchange#09/03/2026 00:40",
            "locator": null,
            "retrieved_at": "2026-11-09T00:00:00Z",
            "effective_at": "09/03/2026 00:40",
            "transformations": [],
            "payload_hash": null,
            "raw_recovery": "available"
          },
          {
            "id": "evidence_10",
            "source_ref": "source_01",
            "record_id": "balancing_authority_interchange#09/03/2026 00:45",
            "locator": null,
            "retrieved_at": "2026-11-09T00:00:00Z",
            "effective_at": "09/03/2026 00:45",
            "transformations": [],
            "payload_hash": null,
            "raw_recovery": "available"
          },
          {
            "id": "evidence_11",
            "source_ref": "source_01",
            "record_id": "balancing_authority_interchange#09/03/2026 00:50",
            "locator": null,
            "retrieved_at": "2026-11-09T00:00:00Z",
            "effective_at": "09/03/2026 00:50",
            "transformations": [],
            "payload_hash": null,
            "raw_recovery": "available"
          },
          {
            "id": "evidence_12",
            "source_ref": "source_01",
            "record_id": "balancing_authority_interchange#09/03/2026 00:55",
            "locator": null,
            "retrieved_at": "2026-11-09T00:00:00Z",
            "effective_at": "09/03/2026 00:55",
            "transformations": [],
            "payload_hash": null,
            "raw_recovery": "available"
          },
          {
            "id": "evidence_13",
            "source_ref": "source_01",
            "record_id": "balancing_authority_interchange#09/03/2026 01:00",
            "locator": null,
            "retrieved_at": "2026-11-09T00:00:00Z",
            "effective_at": "09/03/2026 01:00",
            "transformations": [],
            "payload_hash": null,
            "raw_recovery": "available"
          },
          {
            "id": "evidence_14",
            "source_ref": "source_01",
            "record_id": "balancing_authority_interchange#09/03/2026 01:05",
            "locator": null,
            "retrieved_at": "2026-11-09T00:00:00Z",
            "effective_at": "09/03/2026 01:05",
            "transformations": [],
            "payload_hash": null,
            "raw_recovery": "available"
          },
          {
            "id": "evidence_15",
            "source_ref": "source_01",
            "record_id": "balancing_authority_interchange#09/03/2026 01:10",
            "locator": null,
            "retrieved_at": "2026-11-09T00:00:00Z",
            "effective_at": "09/03/2026 01:10",
            "transformations": [],
            "payload_hash": null,
            "raw_recovery": "available"
          },
          {
            "id": "evidence_16",
            "source_ref": "source_01",
            "record_id": "balancing_authority_interchange#09/03/2026 01:15",
            "locator": null,
            "retrieved_at": "2026-11-09T00:00:00Z",
            "effective_at": "09/03/2026 01:15",
            "transformations": [],
            "payload_hash": null,
            "raw_recovery": "available"
          },
          {
            "id": "evidence_17",
            "source_ref": "source_01",
            "record_id": "balancing_authority_interchange#09/03/2026 01:20",
            "locator": null,
            "retrieved_at": "2026-11-09T00:00:00Z",
            "effective_at": "09/03/2026 01:20",
            "transformations": [],
            "payload_hash": null,
            "raw_recovery": "available"
          },
          {
            "id": "evidence_18",
            "source_ref": "source_01",
            "record_id": "balancing_authority_interchange#09/03/2026 01:25",
            "locator": null,
            "retrieved_at": "2026-11-09T00:00:00Z",
            "effective_at": "09/03/2026 01:25",
            "transformations": [],
            "payload_hash": null,
            "raw_recovery": "available"
          },
          {
            "id": "evidence_19",
            "source_ref": "source_01",
            "record_id": "balancing_authority_interchange#09/03/2026 01:30",
            "locator": null,
            "retrieved_at": "2026-11-09T00:00:00Z",
            "effective_at": "09/03/2026 01:30",
            "transformations": [],
            "payload_hash": null,
            "raw_recovery": "available"
          },
          {
            "id": "evidence_20",
            "source_ref": "source_01",
            "record_id": "balancing_authority_interchange#09/03/2026 01:35",
            "locator": null,
            "retrieved_at": "2026-11-09T00:00:00Z",
            "effective_at": "09/03/2026 01:35",
            "transformations": [],
            "payload_hash": null,
            "raw_recovery": "available"
          },
          {
            "id": "evidence_21",
            "source_ref": "source_01",
            "record_id": "balancing_authority_interchange#09/03/2026 01:40",
            "locator": null,
            "retrieved_at": "2026-11-09T00:00:00Z",
            "effective_at": "09/03/2026 01:40",
            "transformations": [],
            "payload_hash": null,
            "raw_recovery": "available"
          },
          {
            "id": "evidence_22",
            "source_ref": "source_01",
            "record_id": "balancing_authority_interchange#09/03/2026 01:45",
            "locator": null,
            "retrieved_at": "2026-11-09T00:00:00Z",
            "effective_at": "09/03/2026 01:45",
            "transformations": [],
            "payload_hash": null,
            "raw_recovery": "available"
          },
          {
            "id": "evidence_23",
            "source_ref": "source_01",
            "record_id": "balancing_authority_interchange#09/03/2026 01:50",
            "locator": null,
            "retrieved_at": "2026-11-09T00:00:00Z",
            "effective_at": "09/03/2026 01:50",
            "transformations": [],
            "payload_hash": null,
            "raw_recovery": "available"
          },
          {
            "id": "evidence_24",
            "source_ref": "source_01",
            "record_id": "balancing_authority_interchange#09/03/2026 01:55",
            "locator": null,
            "retrieved_at": "2026-11-09T00:00:00Z",
            "effective_at": "09/03/2026 01:55",
            "transformations": [],
            "payload_hash": null,
            "raw_recovery": "available"
          }
        ],
        "coverage": {
          "registry": "covered",
          "execution": "complete",
          "pagination": "complete",
          "source_claim": "complete",
          "result": "hit",
          "sources_searched": [
            "bpa-operations"
          ],
          "time_range": {
            "from": "09/03/2026 00:00",
            "to": "09/03/2026 01:55"
          }
        },
        "warnings": [
          {
            "code": "screening_only",
            "message": "Operational SCADA readings published minutes after the fact. They are situational awareness, not settled, revision-controlled or billing-quality figures, and should not be used as a system-of-record number.",
            "source_id": "bpa-operations"
          }
        ],
        "_execution": {
          "server": "doe-mcp",
          "server_version": "0.1.0.dev0",
          "tool": "grid.get_bpa_operations",
          "tool_contract_version": "1",
          "envelope_version": "1",
          "adapters": {
            "osti_family": "1",
            "opendatasoft": "1",
            "json_document": "1",
            "curated": "1",
            "eia_v2": "1",
            "fueleconomy": "1",
            "text_feed": "1",
            "postgrest": "1",
            "federal_register": "1",
            "vips": "1",
            "daymet": "1",
            "essdive": "1",
            "esgf": "1",
            "sage": "1",
            "optimade": "1",
            "basis_sets": "1",
            "facility_status": "1",
            "gcam_csv": "1",
            "nmdc": "1",
            "none": "1",
            "self_registry": "1"
          },
          "registry_revision": "2026-11-09",
          "request_id": "recorded-workflow"
        }
      }
    }
  ],
  "worksheet": {
    "caption": "Five-minute load prediction bands",
    "columns": [
      "Phase",
      "Prior reading (Pacific Time)",
      "Target reading (Pacific Time)",
      "Prediction (MW)",
      "Reported load (MW)",
      "Absolute error (MW)",
      "Lower bound (MW)",
      "Upper bound (MW)",
      "Inside band",
      "Prior evidence ID",
      "Target evidence ID"
    ],
    "rows": [
      [
        "calibration",
        "09/03/2026 00:00",
        "09/03/2026 00:05",
        6005,
        6049,
        44,
        null,
        null,
        null,
        "evidence_01",
        "evidence_02"
      ],
      [
        "calibration",
        "09/03/2026 00:05",
        "09/03/2026 00:10",
        6049,
        6024,
        25,
        null,
        null,
        null,
        "evidence_02",
        "evidence_03"
      ],
      [
        "calibration",
        "09/03/2026 00:10",
        "09/03/2026 00:15",
        6024,
        6001,
        23,
        null,
        null,
        null,
        "evidence_03",
        "evidence_04"
      ],
      [
        "calibration",
        "09/03/2026 00:15",
        "09/03/2026 00:20",
        6001,
        6009,
        8,
        null,
        null,
        null,
        "evidence_04",
        "evidence_05"
      ],
      [
        "calibration",
        "09/03/2026 00:20",
        "09/03/2026 00:25",
        6009,
        5913,
        96,
        null,
        null,
        null,
        "evidence_05",
        "evidence_06"
      ],
      [
        "calibration",
        "09/03/2026 00:25",
        "09/03/2026 00:30",
        5913,
        5969,
        56,
        null,
        null,
        null,
        "evidence_06",
        "evidence_07"
      ],
      [
        "calibration",
        "09/03/2026 00:30",
        "09/03/2026 00:35",
        5969,
        6004,
        35,
        null,
        null,
        null,
        "evidence_07",
        "evidence_08"
      ],
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      "radius_rank": 14,
      "radius_mw": 62,
      "holdout_pairs": 8,
      "hits": 7
    }
  }
}